Breaking down this year’s Oscar predictions

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On Sunday, March 4th, televisions across the continent will be graced with the brilliant beard of Jimmy Kimmel as we settle in and watch inconclusive history be made with the 90th Academy Awards.

Let’s not kid ourselves; the Oscars are dumb.

History has proven that they always get it wrong.

In 1994, Forrest Gump somehow beat out the immaculate Shawshank Redemption for Best Picture.

In 1998, burning pile of trash Shakespeare in Love somehow took the big prize over Saving Private Ryan.

And yet, Oscar season is so much fun.

The excitement is contagious. For a few short months around the beginning of the year, the conversation surrounding film shifts from blockbuster franchise flicks to high-quality, artistically crafted pictures.

This is all in fun, but here are a few picks for what I think will take the big awards this year:

For best picture, Dunkirk should win this award.

No movie this year embodied this kind of mastery over filmmaking. But it’s not going to and The Shape of Water — an awesomely confusing inter-special romance — is going to take it; bet on it.

With Daniel Day-Lewis retiring after his role in Phantom Thread, I’m sure the Academy feels tempted to float Best Actor his way.
But Gary Oldman, channeling a totally different and superior Winston Churchill than other excellent recent performances(John Lithgow in The Crown, Brain Cox in Churchill) totally disappears into the role and deserves this assured win.

I’m for Meryl Streep in The Post for Best Actress because… I’m always for Meryl Streep.

But Frances McDormand’s darkly comic performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is an enormous highlight and she will probably leave this year with her second Academy Award.

Sam Rockwell should and will win Best Supporting Actor this year. Three Billboards was a great picture and that’s almost entirely because of Rockwell’s incredible performance.

He’s so, so detestable, and yet so, so charismatic through the whole picture that you can’t help but like him. I’ve never felt so conflicted watching a character onscreen and watching his story develop was one of the highlights of cinema in 2017.

I, Tonya didn’t get a lot of love this year, but if it’s going to win anywhere it’s in Best Supporting Actress.

Laura Metcalfe has a chance here for Lady Bird, but Allison Janney is probably going to slide in and win this one.

Finally, Best Director has too many cool options: Christopher Nolan killed it this year — probably my favourite — but so did everybody else. This is probably going to go to Del Toro and that would be cool. The Shape of Water is such a Del Toro picture and is such a bold, unique fairy-tale cinema experience.

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